Environmental Scan - Research and Planning Office

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Analytical Summary

District

• Population will increase statewide by 44.4% from 2000 to 2030, but Alameda County’s predicted growth rate is about half (23.3%) of California’s forecasted growth. (California Department of Finance)

• The Ohlone Community College District is characterized by a culture of attainment. In Fremont, where 54.4% of students live, 27.4% of the residents aged 25+ possess baccalaureate degrees, and an additional 20.6% also have graduate or professional degrees. Nearly half (44.6%) of the employed civilian population work as management or professionals. In such an environment, children are expected to attend college, and high standards are expected of schools and colleges. (United States Census Bureau, American Community Survey)

• The proportion of adults in the district with a bachelor’s degree or higher in 2007 was 42.5% compared to the 38.4% in 2000 in the San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose metropolitan area. In Fremont, the proportion of adults with a bachelor’s degree or higher was 48.0% in 2007. These numbers are significantly higher than both the state (29.1%) and national (27.0%) proportions. (United States Census Bureau, American Community Survey)

• Forty-three percent of district residents are foreign born and in 56.3% of the district households, English is not the first language. Educationally, Ohlone must excel in English and ESL as well as in cross-cultural communication and understanding. (United States Census Bureau, American Community Survey)

• In Fremont, 76% of foreign born residents were born in Asia (compared to 66% in the Bay Area) and 15% were born in Latin America. (United States Census Bureau, American Community Survey)

• English was the predominant language in only four of 10 district households in 2007. Other languages spoken at home were Spanish (14.3%), Asian (27.2%) and other Indo-European (13.9%). Of these households, 48.7% of Spanish speakers, 46.4% of Asian speakers, and 33.2% of other Indo-European speakers reported they spoke English “less than very well.” (United States Census Bureau, American Community Survey)

• The current ethnic distribution within the district is 3.5% African-American, 35.3% Asian, 19.4% Hispanic, 8.8% Filipino, 0.2% Native American, 1.0% Pacific Islander, 29.2% White, and 2.8% Other/multi-ethnic. Comparatively, students at Ohlone College are distributed 4.5% African American, 36.5% Asian, 11.4% Hispanic, 7.9% Filipino, 0.5% Native American, 1.2% Pacific Islander, 26.9% White, and 12.0% Other/multi-ethnic. The college is significantly underrepresented among Hispanic and White students. (United States Census Bureau, American Community Survey; California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office)

• Hispanic students are the third largest ethnic group on campus at 11.4% of the student population, but are under-represented by 8.0%, below the district resident average of 19.4%. (United States Census Bureau, American Community Survey; California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office)

• Significant changes are occurring among age groups in Alameda County. From 1990 to 2007, the proportion of residents age 25 to 44 as a share of the county’s population decreased from 36.8% to 30.5% while the proportion of 45 to 64 year-olds increased from 17.7% to 25.8%. The 20 to 24 year-old age range, a prime college-going group, decreased from 8.4% to 6.7%. (California Department of Finance)

• Between 2000-2030, the growth rate for 15-19 year olds will be 12.75% and for 20-24 year olds it will be 6.56%; however, there will be a decline for all age groups between 25-49 and 100+% growth for age groups between 60-85+. (California Department of Finance)

• County residents in the gap between baby boomers and “echo boomers” (those born between 1982 and 1995) will impact county demographics. Despite strong growth among Hispanics in the age ranges (the number of Hispanics in the 30 to 49 year-old range will almost double by 2030), there will be significant decline by 2030 among 30-34 year-olds (from 8.6% of the population in 2000 to 6.1% by 2030), 35 to 39 year-olds (8.9% to 6.6%). 40 to 44 year-olds (8.4% to 6.3%), and 45 to 49 year-olds (7.4% to 5.9%). The declines are steepest among White residents, where 30 to 49 year-olds represented 35.2% of the White population in 2000 but will only account for 22.3% in 2030. (California Department of Finance)

• Public high school graduates in Alameda County are projected to decline by 16.28% between 2007-2016. (California Department of Finance)

• More than a sixth of the young adults (18 to 24 year-olds) in California have less than a high school education. These estimated 980,000 individuals represent a larger share of the population than the number of students expected to enter California community colleges as a result of Tidal Wave II. In the district there are conflicting patterns of high school graduation. For all residents age 25 or over, only 9.3% of Fremont residents lack a high school diploma or equivalent; in Newark, however, 20.5% have not graduated from high school, and 17.0% of Union City residents age 25 or over have not completed 12th grade. (National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education)

• In 2007, Alameda County had the 8th largest K-12 enrollment of California’s 58 counties, but ranked 55th in numeric growth (down1,848 students since 2006) and 34th in growth rate (down 0.9%); by 2016 the county will be the 10th largest, having lost 18,218 students for a growth rate of -8.6%, the fifth worst growth rate in the state for K-12 enrollment. (California Department of Finance)

• The college’s projected ten year growth rate of 14.1%, as estimated by the Chancellor’s Office, is 65th among 72 California community college districts, despite a 39.7% projected growth for 18-19 year olds in the county over the same period. This suggests the district is “aging” and families with children are increasingly likely to reside elsewhere in the county. . (National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education)

• Although high school enrollments in the district have increased slightly (0.9%), high school graduation rates have declined by 3.5%, suggesting a smaller pool of college-prepared students and an increased demand for basic skills. English learners and socio-economically disadvantaged students pass the high school exit exam at rates well below other students. (California Department of Education)

• Of those high school students that do graduate, students from six of the seven district high schools complete CSU/UC entry requirements at a rate higher than the state average. One quarter of all district high school graduates enroll at the college. For these students, the college must maintain a strong transfer focus and continue to increase transfer opportunities, programs, and articulation. (California Department of Education)

• Mission San Jose High School continues to rank academically as one of the top high schools in the state, but only 10% of their graduates enroll at Ohlone after graduation. Conversely, 561 Mission San Jose students are concurrently enrolled at Ohlone, preparing themselves for universities after high school graduation.

• Six district high schools have an Academic Performance Index score below the state’s target of 800, but five of the six increased their API between 2006-07 and 2007-08. Ohlone College students are diverse academically as well as ethnically and culturally. (California Department of Education)

• Eight percent (7.6% in Fremont, 7.5% in Newark, and 9.5% in Union City) of the district population aged 16 to 64 reports a disability. Ohlone will need to provide appropriate assistance to students with disabilities who enroll. (United States Census Bureau, American Community Survey)

Economy and Housing

• In the United States, it takes two incomes to provide the standard of living that one income provided 30 years ago. Work time, family time, and traffic congestion all conspire to impact attendance at community colleges by working-age adults. (Warren, E. and Warren, A. The Two-Income Trap: Why Middle-Class Mothers and Fathers are Going Broke, 2003)

• Unemployment fell from 2003 to 2006, but rose from 4.5% in March 2006, to 5.5% in March 2008, and rose again in August 2008 to 6.9%.  In times of unemployment, college enrollments often increase as residents seek retraining. (California Employment Development Department)

• As employment in the district changes to meet the changing populations, college programs may also need to change. For instance, despite the growing need for such services, child day care jobs are in decline; but as the district ages, the need for home health care and for community care facilities for the elderly increase. (California Employment Development Department)

• Much of the employment growth is in computer, electronic, and technical services, consistent with the Silicon Valley environment. However, computer and semiconductor manufacturing industries are in decline, reflecting increased outsourcing in those industries. (California Employment Development Department)

• In comparison with the state, the district is home to a significantly higher proportion of managers and professionals (44.6% to 35.0%) and fewer blue collar workers (17.6% to 22.3%). Within the district, Newark mirrors the statewide proportion of blue collar workers at 22.3%, Union City exceeds it at 24.5%, but Fremont has significantly less proportion of blue collar workers at 14.6%. Fremont also has more than half (50.5%) of its workforce employed as managers and professionals. (United States Census Bureau, American Community Survey)

• Nearly 80 percent of all new jobs created to 2012 in the United States require an Associate’s degree or less. The predominate mode of training employees is “on the job training,” so the college needs to partner closely with private employers to help provide training programs. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

• Many of those industries projected to add the greatest number of jobs by 2014 do not align with current college programs, but many, too, do not require college preparation. Of those occupations that are consistent with college programs, those in health sciences, business, and technology are the most common.

• 63.5% of area jobs are in the mid-wage level ($30,000-$80,000). These are jobs that are often accessible with an associate’s degree, even those at the higher end of the scale. Two of the growth areas also correspond to emerging programs in multimedia and environmental science. (California Employment Development Department)

• There are marked differences in the California workforce. Among working age adults, about 52% of Hispanics do not have a high school diploma, compared to 8% of Whites. Alternately, only 12% of working age Hispanics have a college degree, compared with 46% of working age Whites. (National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education)

• By 2020, the percentage of the workforce in the state with a college degree is projected to decline, while the share of the workforce with less than a high school diploma is projected to increase. (National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education)

• If the average educational level of the state workforce declines, California’s personal income per capita is projected to drop 11% by 2020, the largest drop in the nation. One consequence of such a decline in personal income would be a decrease in the state’s tax base. (National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education)

• The district continues to be one of the least affordable regions in the country for home ownership and renters. About 41% of the district homeowners and renters in 2007 paid more than 30% of their household income for housing. (East Bay Community Foundation; United States Census Bureau, American Community Survey)

• A flood of foreclosures, falling home prices, and rising unemployment numbers in October 2008 have increased the likelihood that home prices will continue to fall in the Bay Area. In the East Bay, there is a 94.4% likelihood of home prices declining in the next two years, up from the 75.7% likelihood in the first quarter of 2008. (San Jose Mercury News)

• Thirty-three percent of working county residents commute to work outside the county. Most commute to San Francisco County (72,000), Santa Clara County (70,000), Contra Costa County (36,000), and San Mateo County (34,000). A larger number of workers commute into Alameda County, primarily from Contra Costa County (96,000), Santa Clara County (37,000), San Francisco County (21,000), San Joaquin County (20,000), San Mateo County (15,000), and Solano County (13,000). (United States Census Bureau)

• Five-year migration patterns from within the continental US reveal that more people leave Alameda County than arrive and the county loses residents at a 6.8% rate over five years. For new residents coming to the county from out of state, the most come from Texas (8.5%), New York (7.8%), Washington (6.0%), Illinois (5.9%), and Massachusetts (5.0%); residents moving out of state are most likely to choose Washington (9.2%), Texas (7.2%), Nevada (6.6%), Oregon (6.0%), or Arizona (6.0%). Residents moving to Alameda County from within California come from Santa Clara (18.6%), San Francisco (15.2%), Contra Costa (12.9%), San Mateo (11.8%), or Los Angeles (10.6%) counties. When leaving Alameda to another California county, residents are most likely to go to Contra Costa (24.6%), Santa Clara (10.0%) or San Joaquin (8.9%). (California Department of Finance)

Higher Education and Public Policy

• A recent report estimates that 1.5 million students who probably would have been awarded Pell Grants in 2003-04 did not apply for them, up from the estimated 850,000 who missed out on aid in 1999-2000. The number of low income students who did not file for federal financial aid rose to 1.8 million, or 28% of low-income students. Ohlone should not overlook the opportunities to enroll students, especially under-represented minorities, who could afford college with the help of financial aid. (American Council on Education)

• Just over one-half (52%) of all undergraduates are independent students and represent almost two-thirds (64%) of community college students. The needs of these students—who are considered by the federal government to be financially independent of their parents—are sometimes overlooked and not considered with the needs of traditional undergraduates. (National Center for Education Statistics)

• The abolishment of the federal 50-percent rule—which previously prevented a college enrolling more than 50% of its students in distance education or offering more than 50% of its courses via distance education from participating in federal student aid programs—will provoke an increase in both online programs at traditional colleges and the creation of for-profit businesses specializing in distance education. (Chronicle of Higher Education)

• Accrediting commissions are becoming more aggressive in upholding clear and measurable student learning outcomes, and the emergence of diverse student populations in age, goals, background, and economic status requires colleges to develop a variety of teaching modalities and hiring practices.

• Community colleges are meeting unprecedented demand for their services in a time when traditional public financial support is not increasing at the same rate, forcing new sources of revenue to maintain and expand programs and services.

Community Colleges

• The decision by the California State University system in 2009 to cap enrollment will put added pressure on the state’s community college system to increase capacity at a time when community colleges are also facing resource shortfalls.

• University of California undergraduate enrollment will grow 17.8% between 2005-2015; California State University undergraduate enrollment will grow by 16.4%; by comparison, California Community College enrollment will grow by 24.5%.

• Among the 21 community colleges that comprise the Bay 10 districts, Ohlone is mid-sized with an annual headcount enrollment slightly above 18,000. Four of the Bay 10 colleges enroll 30,000+. Full time equivalent student (FTES) enrollment for the college ranks seventh at 4,000+ and is one of only eight Bay 10 colleges that have increased FTES since 2003-04. (California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office)

• With 27.0% of all students enrolled for 12 or more units, Ohlone ranks in the middle of Bay 10 district colleges for rate of full time students. Four area colleges are above 35% full time enrollment, Ohlone’s stated goal. (California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office)

• The 2008 Accountability Reporting for Community Colleges report saw Ohlone rate above its peers on five of seven success indicators. The college remains strong in the areas of transfer preparation, vocational course completion, completion of 30 units, persistence, and basic skills improvement rate; however, the college is not as strong in ESL improvement or in basic skills completion rates. (California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office)

• Ohlone is mid-level in the Bay 10 for percentage of students transferring to California State Universities (9th of 21) but in the top third (7th of 21) in sending students to Universities of California. The college’s percent of students earning associate’s degrees (2.0%) ranks in the bottom third of Bay 10 colleges within the overall range of 0.9%-3.8%. (California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office)

• Ohlone students who transfer to CSUs do so with entering grade point averages at or above the state average for all community colleges. CSU students who transferred in from Ohlone as upper division students have a first year GPA above the state average, although the first year GPA for lower division transfers from Ohlone is below the state average. Ohlone’s upper division transfers persist to a second year at CSUs above the state average, but below for lower division transfers. Completing a comprehensive 60 unit transfer curriculum portends better-than-state-average success rates for students.

• Average salaries for Ohlone full-time faculty are the highest among Bay 10 colleges, but the hourly rate for adjuncts and for full-time overload is the lowest in the Bay 10. Administrator salaries are fourth highest among the ten Bay Area districts, as are salaries for classified staff. (California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office)

Staff

• The percentage of classified staff aged 50+ has declined by 3% since 2006-07, but almost two-thirds (64%) of management are older than 50 years of age. Among full-time faculty, 55% are 50+, but Ohlone has 4% more full-time faculty under age 34 than the state average. (California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office)

• In most categories of employment, the number of staff has increased more than proportionately to student enrollment so that staff in 2007 are serving fewer students per staff member than in Fall 2002. A notable exception is the categories of administration/management where the proportionate student-to-administration/management ratio has risen. Most dramatically, the ratio of students to administrators has risen 57.4% (from 411 students/administrator to 647 students/administrator) since Fall 2002. (California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office)

Students

• 68.9% of students come from within the Ohlone Community College District; 11.6% come from other areas within Alameda County; 10.9% are from Santa Clara County.

• There are 11% more female students than male students. About three-fifths (59.7%) of students are under the age of 25, but the average student age is 28.4. 17.9% of students are still K-12 students concurrently enrolled. Over half (51.9%) of Ohlone students enroll for less than 6 units.

• Annual FTES has increased 10.9% since 2005-06 despite a decline in overall headcount in 2007-08. Fewer students are taking more units, so the percent of full-time students has increased 2% since 2006-07.

• 8.1% of FTES is generated through distance learning. Since Fall 2004, online sections have increased almost 200% (192.9%) and online enrollment has increased 174.7%.

• 78.3% of all course enrollments in Fall 2007 was in CSU/UC transferable courses. Vocational course enrollments have declined 3% from Fall 2006. Basic skills enrollments have increased 43.6% over Fall 2006, reflecting an increased demand and the focus of the goals of Title III and the Basic Skills Initiative.

• Enrollment by first-time freshmen aged 19 and younger is trending upward in California community colleges. At Ohlone, there are about 30% (29.2%) more students aged 19 or less than there was in Fall 2005. There was also a 7.7% decline for all age groups over age 25, most dramatically among students age 40-49.

• The highest percentage of entering students is freshman high school graduates at 39%; 18% are concurrently enrolled K-12 students. At the other end of the spectrum, 16% of students already possess a bachelor’s degree or higher.

• Only 15% of Fall 2007 students were first-time college students; 67% of students had been enrolled at Ohlone prior to Fall 2007.

Student Success

• All program awards (degrees and certificates awarded) have been in decline for each of the past four years, and degrees awarded have declined 20% since 2004-05.

• Although the numbers have risen and fallen over the last six years, the total number of transfers to CSU/UC campuses is exactly the same as in 2002-03. There are now more transfers to UCs and less transfers to CSUs. (California Postsecondary Education Commission)

• Ohlone’s course retention and success rates are below the state averages and both have been in decline for each of the past three years, although the rates still compare favorably to those colleges identified by the Chancellor’s Office as “peers.” (California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office)

• The college’s persistence (year-to-year retention) rate is above both the California Community College average and above those “peer” colleges as identified by the Chancellor’s Office. (California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office)

• The percentage of students successfully completing vocational courses is above both the CCC and peer group averages; however, the percentage of students successfully completing basic skills courses is below both the CCC and peer group averages. (California Community Colleges Chancellor’s Office)

Courses and Sections

• Weekly student contact hours (WSCH) increased by 26.6% in 2007-08 over the previous five year average, while full-time equivalent faculty (FTEF) only increased by 10.9%. This resulted in a 14.4% increased efficiency in WSCH/FTEF.

• Fifteen academic departments had an increase in WSCH greater than 50% over the previous five year average; six departments saw a decrease in WSCH over the same period.

• Half of all the weekly student contact hours is produced by eight departments

• The average load efficiency (WSCH/FTEF) for 2007-08 was 581; 22 departments were above that average. Conversely, 26 departments were below the efficiency benchmark of 525.

• English and Mathematics are, by far, the two highest enrolled departments and have the highest numbers of faculty.

• The most efficient (WSCH/FTEF) departments are those foreign languages that have large concurrent enrollment offerings at district high schools where faculty are school district, rather than college, employees.

• Nine departments saw declines in weekly student contact hours in 2007-08 from the previous five year average.

• Basic skills enrollments have increased 45.5% in English but have declined 8.3% in mathematics compared to the previous five year average.